October 2025 US auto sales expected to moderate from elevated Q3 levels

October 2025 US auto sales are projected to reach 1.29 million units, according to S&P Global Mobility. This would translate to an estimated sales pace of 15.6 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), a moderate downshift from the 16.4-million-unit pace averaged in the third quarter. 

A surge in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales—ahead of the September 30 consumer EV tax credit expiration—was a key driver of the Q3 sales growth, and the pull-ahead effect will be apparent in the fourth quarter volume.

“US auto sales in October are expected to moderate from the BEV-boosted third quarter level,” said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility.

“Fourth quarter 2025 auto demand is going to have a tough time matching the strong year-ago results; a BEV volume hangover combined with ever present new vehicle affordability issues will contribute to muted growth through the remainder of the year.”  

US auto sales in the fourth quarter are expected to be below the strong Q4 2024 result, with full-year 2025 volume estimated at 16.1 million units. 

October 2025 US auto sales

Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales

Continued development of battery-electric vehicle sales remains increasingly uncertain. The auto policy implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) could further temper long-term BEV demand growth.

In the near term, continued month-to-month volatility in BEV sales and market share is expected. EV share advanced as anticipated from July through September, but a significant drop in adoption is likely in the fourth quarter of 2025.

BEV share of sales in September are estimated to be above 12.0%. Dwindling BEV inventory conditions and immediate impact from the third quarter sales surge, will sharply moderate fourth quarter BEV sales, with October share estimated to be 5%. 

Looking ahead: the impact of 2025 US auto sales

The 2025 US auto sales market continues to contend with affordability pressures and shifting EV policies. S&P Global Mobility will continue to monitor the evolving sales environment as manufacturers and consumers adapt to changing incentive landscapes.

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